Maryland and Rutgers are joining the Big Ten
News broke today that Maryland and Rutgers are joining the Big Ten. Maryland will be announcing this in a news conference later today while Rutgers is expected to make the announcement tomorrow. These teams should be joining effective 2014 (not next year, but the year following).
Introducing the Teams
The Maryland Terrapins are a founding member of the ACC and has been in that conference since 1953. Their football team was pretty decent for a while in the early 2000s, but right now they kind of suck. Their athletic budget is deep in the red; they've recently had to cut some sports because of their budget problems. On top of that, they have to pay a $50 million exit fee to the ACC to get to the Big Ten. Luckily for them, the owner of Under Armour is a Maryland alum and just so happened to recently cash in about $60 million worth of stock. What a coincidence!
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are a decent team. They play in the Big East and should win that conference this year. For the longest time they were abysmal; a total joke of a program. That turned around under coach Greg Shaiano (now in the NFL), and they've been ranked in the Top Ten within the last five or so years. Right now they are ranked in the Top 25. Fun fact: Rutgers played in, and won, the very first college football game.
It's All About the Benjamins. Millions of Them.
Adding these two schools is not really a breathtakingly strategic football move. Adding Maryland is like adding another Illinois (when Illinois is actually decent... not this year). Adding Rutgers is like adding another Iowa. Solid, with the potential for a great year now and then.
What this move is really about is the Big Ten Network. Maryland will bring in the Baltimore and D.C. television markets, while Rutgers is supposedly going to bring in the New York market (Rutgers is in New Jersey, about 40 miles south of NY city). These are three of the biggest TV markets in America; between them are tens of millions of viewers.
Will it Work?
The problem is, the NY City area has never really been a college football hotbed. It's definitely a pro-football and Major League Baseball town (and basketball, to a slightly lesser extent). Nobody is going to confuse NY City with Columbus, Ann Arbor, or Lincoln when it comes to college football.
But this is where things get interesting: what if Rutgers played teams with tradition, like Ohio State, TSUN, and Nebraska instead of Pittsburgh, Louisville and Cincinnati? There are millions of Big Ten alums living in those areas; is a move to the Big Ten just what the doctor ordered to wake up this sleeping giant of a TV market?
If it is, the Big Ten is going to become even more rich and powerful than it is now. I've already read some projections that state adding Rutgers and Maryland could net the Big Ten between $100-$200 million. So if this little experiment works, Big Ten commissioner Jim Delaney is going to look like a genius. Also, it should also weaken the SEC's stranglehold on the market. If New York falls in love with the Big Ten, that is way too big of a market for ESecPN to ignore, and it should earn the Big Ten some more air time.
If it doesn't work, the Big Ten is going to be saddled with two more programs that are just 'meh' programs, and the conference will become more watered down.
Divisions
Finally, this move gives the chance for divisional realignment. Putting OSU and TSUN in different divisions was a mistake. Imagine if OSU was eligible to play in the title game this year. If TSUN won and Nebraska lost this week. We would be playing TSUN again next week for the title. Terrible. You know how I feel about rematches, and I especially don't want this rivalry to lose significance. And maybe we can change "Leaders" and "Legends" (vomit) to "East" and "West".
In my opinion, here's how the divisions should look:
East West
Rutgers Northwestern
Maryland Nebraska
Penn State Wisconsin
Ohio State Illinois
TSUN Michigan State
Purdue Minnesota
Indiana Iowa
These divisions make sense geographically and competitively. Each team would play eight conference games: the other six in your division + 2 from the other division. One of those two could even be a "protected" crossover; for example; TSUN would play Michigan State every year to protect that rivalry; OSU would play Illinois every year for Illibuck, etc.
The problem that creates is that OSU, for example, would play Northwestern, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Minnesota and Iowa once every six years. And this is good and bad. Good because it greatly reduces the chance of a rematch in a conference championship game and bad because... well, it's pretty obvious. Isn't the point of being in a conference so you play your conference foes? Is once every six years really an ideal scenario? Maybe adding a ninth conference game is in the works. We'll see.
Final Thoughts
I'm cautiously optimistic about adding Maryland and Rutgers. Both schools are academically strong (important to the Big Ten), and they fit in the geographic area (somewhat) of where the Big Ten already is (in other words, it's not like we're trying to add Oregon here).
Football-wise, it'll be fun to watch OSU play these guys. I'm especially excited to see an Ohio State-Rutgers game. If conferences are realigned like I think they should be, OSU's path to the Big Ten title gets a little easier (trading Illinois for Maryland is a wash, but trading Wisconsin for Rutgers is a good thing). Hopefully the conferences will realign. I don't see how they won't; there's no way Maryland or Rutgers are going to be placed in the western-centered Legends division.
It's going to be a mental adjustment as much as anything. For 100 years, the Big Ten has been a Midwestern conference. The addition of Penn State in 1994 started to change that, and now adding Maryland and Rutgers further expands the Big Ten presence in the Northeast.
Monday, November 19, 2012
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Reviewing my Week 11 Picks
It always seems to happen this way. The one week of the season that seems pretty quiet results in a huge upset. Week 11 was that week, with #1 Alabama going down, and #6 Florida nearly losing to (who?) UL- Lafayette, home of the Ragin' Cajuns.
With the Tide at least temporarily out of the picture, I'm really pulling for Kansas State and Oregon to remain undefeated and #1 and #2 in the BCS. Since ND is pretty much a lock to win out, nothing would make me happier than: a) seeing undefeated ND getting locked out of the title game and b) seeing a title game with zero SEC teams in it.
My pick: Texas A&M over Alabama in a nail biter
What happened: A&M roared out to a 20-0 first quarter lead, then had enough to hold off resurgent Alabama for the rest of the game. The Tide had a chance (two, really), down 29-24. With just under two minutes to go and a first and goal, Alabama couldn't punch it in, eventually throwing a pick on 4th down. After holding the Aggies and forcing a punt, an Alabama player jumped offside and sealed the win for Texas A&M in the upset of the year so far.
I said that to win this game, A&M QB Johnny Manziel would have to play a near perfect game and he did. This kid is only a freshman and he's going to be something. He finished with 253 passing and 92 rushing against one of the country's best defenses.
Final: Texas A&M 29, Alabama 24
My pick: Kansas State over TCU in a close one
What happened: I'll be honest here. Due to a work party for my wife, I didn't get to catch this game. Looking at the stat line though, it looks like it was a defensive struggle. TCU held Heisman frontrunner Collin Klein to 145 passing and 45 rushing, but it was enough. K-State is just two wins away from playing for it all.
Final: Kansas State 23, TCU 10
My pick: Nebraska over Penn State in an easy one
What happened: PSU took a 20-6 halftime lead over the Cornhuskers but, in typical fashion, Nebraska came to life in the second half. I have never seen a team play so much better in the second half of games. It seems like since Nebraska joined the Big Ten last year they love to give up leads, then decide to make life interesting by coming back. Nebraska outscored Penn State 26-3 in the second half, highlighted by a Penn State fumble in their own end zone, which Nebraska recovered to take a double-digit lead.
Final: Nebraska 32, Penn State 23
My pick: TSUN over Northwestern in a close one
What happened: Ugh. Just as I knew they would, TSUN found a way to win a game like this. Up by three with seconds to go, Northwestern punted from midfield. On TSUN's first offensive play, backup QB Devin Gardner throws a bomb to Ohio-born traitor Roy Roundtree. The pass looked to be overthrown but the Northwestern defender batted it away.... right to Roundtree who made, admittedly, a hell of a catch at the Wildcat 9 with :07 to play. TSUN kicked the field goal, then won in OT.
Final: TSUN 38, Northwestern 31, OT
My pick: Wisconsin over Indiana in an easy one
What happened: Wisconsin punched their ticket to play in the Big Ten title game in Indy by LOL'ing all over the Hoosier defense. The Badgers rushed for a school-record 564 yards against the IU defense, and that's really saying something. Wisconsin has always been a power running school and they set a school record for rushing. This game was over in the first quarter and I'm not going to waste anymore time on it.
Final: Wisconsin 62, Indiana 14
Wait? What's that sound? A perfect week? Yes, it's true... the blind squirrel found five nuts this week. Huzzah!
Record this week: 5-0
Overall: 18-7
It always seems to happen this way. The one week of the season that seems pretty quiet results in a huge upset. Week 11 was that week, with #1 Alabama going down, and #6 Florida nearly losing to (who?) UL- Lafayette, home of the Ragin' Cajuns.
With the Tide at least temporarily out of the picture, I'm really pulling for Kansas State and Oregon to remain undefeated and #1 and #2 in the BCS. Since ND is pretty much a lock to win out, nothing would make me happier than: a) seeing undefeated ND getting locked out of the title game and b) seeing a title game with zero SEC teams in it.
My pick: Texas A&M over Alabama in a nail biter
What happened: A&M roared out to a 20-0 first quarter lead, then had enough to hold off resurgent Alabama for the rest of the game. The Tide had a chance (two, really), down 29-24. With just under two minutes to go and a first and goal, Alabama couldn't punch it in, eventually throwing a pick on 4th down. After holding the Aggies and forcing a punt, an Alabama player jumped offside and sealed the win for Texas A&M in the upset of the year so far.
I said that to win this game, A&M QB Johnny Manziel would have to play a near perfect game and he did. This kid is only a freshman and he's going to be something. He finished with 253 passing and 92 rushing against one of the country's best defenses.
Final: Texas A&M 29, Alabama 24
My pick: Kansas State over TCU in a close one
What happened: I'll be honest here. Due to a work party for my wife, I didn't get to catch this game. Looking at the stat line though, it looks like it was a defensive struggle. TCU held Heisman frontrunner Collin Klein to 145 passing and 45 rushing, but it was enough. K-State is just two wins away from playing for it all.
Final: Kansas State 23, TCU 10
My pick: Nebraska over Penn State in an easy one
What happened: PSU took a 20-6 halftime lead over the Cornhuskers but, in typical fashion, Nebraska came to life in the second half. I have never seen a team play so much better in the second half of games. It seems like since Nebraska joined the Big Ten last year they love to give up leads, then decide to make life interesting by coming back. Nebraska outscored Penn State 26-3 in the second half, highlighted by a Penn State fumble in their own end zone, which Nebraska recovered to take a double-digit lead.
Final: Nebraska 32, Penn State 23
My pick: TSUN over Northwestern in a close one
What happened: Ugh. Just as I knew they would, TSUN found a way to win a game like this. Up by three with seconds to go, Northwestern punted from midfield. On TSUN's first offensive play, backup QB Devin Gardner throws a bomb to Ohio-born traitor Roy Roundtree. The pass looked to be overthrown but the Northwestern defender batted it away.... right to Roundtree who made, admittedly, a hell of a catch at the Wildcat 9 with :07 to play. TSUN kicked the field goal, then won in OT.
Final: TSUN 38, Northwestern 31, OT
My pick: Wisconsin over Indiana in an easy one
What happened: Wisconsin punched their ticket to play in the Big Ten title game in Indy by LOL'ing all over the Hoosier defense. The Badgers rushed for a school-record 564 yards against the IU defense, and that's really saying something. Wisconsin has always been a power running school and they set a school record for rushing. This game was over in the first quarter and I'm not going to waste anymore time on it.
Final: Wisconsin 62, Indiana 14
Wait? What's that sound? A perfect week? Yes, it's true... the blind squirrel found five nuts this week. Huzzah!
Record this week: 5-0
Overall: 18-7
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Random Thoughts
I'm sitting here watching Florida State at Virginia Tech in an offensive abomination of a game, so my mind has wandered on to a couple other topics.
Expanded Playoff?
In 2014, a four-team college football playoff will go in to effect as the new way of determining the National Champion. This is the perfect number of teams for a playoff. Looking through the history of the BCS since its inception in 1998, it is difficult to consistently find four teams deserving enough to play for all the marbles. Last year with Stanford and Oklahoma State comes to mind. Auburn definitely had an argument in 2004 after going 13-0 and not getting their fair shot. So yes, expanding the teams that get a title shot from 2 to 4 makes perfect sense.
What about eight?
A recent report from a few sportswriters indicate some athletic directors foresee the playoff expanding to eight teams before the four-team deal is even halfway through it's contract. Why? There's going to be way too much money pouring in to keep this playoff at four teams.
It's a damn shame. Do we really need to see an eight-team playoff with four SEC teams? This dilutes conference championship games even more. Even worse, it will set up more rematches.
Consider this hypothetical but entirely realistic nightmare scenario:
#1 Alabama squeaks by #2 Florida early in the regular season. Both teams run the table the rest of the way.
#1 Alabama squeaks by #2 Florida in the SEC Championship game.
Both Alabama (13-0) and Florida (11-2) are seeded in the eight-team playoff
Those teams win their playoff games and make the Championship
In the title game, 8th seeded Florida beats #1 Alabama.
Not only do you have the same teams playing three games in one season, you have Florida crowned champions over Alabama even though they were 1-2 against them in those three games. Remember my "Perfect World" post from a few weeks ago? Leave the playoff at four teams, and require the invitees to be conference champions. Problem solved.
Perhaps the biggest drawback to expanding the playoffs to eight is that more playoff teams equals a more diluted regular season. Right now (and even under a four team playoff), if a team loses a single game, their national title aspirations take a serious hit. A second loss, even for a strong SEC team means your national title dreams are over.
An expanded playoff gives teams too many second chances. An eight team playoff will include one or two undefeated teams, four to five one loss teams, and one to three two loss teams. Heck, even a three loss SEC team wouldn't surprise me.
The regular season is so exciting because teams must walk that tightrope all season long. Expanding to eight teams expands the safety net and allows teams to lose up to two games while still getting consideration for the postseason.
Unfortunately, the almighty dollar always prevails and it looks like the fans will lose out on this one.
Pass Interference
OK, that last blurb was longer than I expected and I wanted to talk a little about pass interference. I'll try to keep this short.
I swear that this year, more than any other in recent memory, I have seen wide receivers throw their arms up trying to draw a flag whenever there is any contact with a defender. As a trained football official, this annoys the hell out of me.
In my view, if the defender has his arm on the offensive players back and is not impeding his chance to catch the ball, it is not PI. If the defender is making a play on the ball and is looking toward the ball after the QB releases it, it is not PI. Rules state that both players have an equal right to that ball; receivers seem to have never learned this or selectively forget.
True pass interference involves the defender hooking an arm, face guarding, or obstructing the offensive player without turning to make a play on the ball.
Coming Soon
Sometime soon I'm planning to write an entry ranking my favorite announcers along with a few of my not-so-favorite announcers in college football. Good announcing can add to the excitement of the game or it can make you long for nails on a chalkboard. It should be a fun topic to think about.
Whew. Glad to have all that out of my system. Have a good Friday!
I'm sitting here watching Florida State at Virginia Tech in an offensive abomination of a game, so my mind has wandered on to a couple other topics.
Expanded Playoff?
In 2014, a four-team college football playoff will go in to effect as the new way of determining the National Champion. This is the perfect number of teams for a playoff. Looking through the history of the BCS since its inception in 1998, it is difficult to consistently find four teams deserving enough to play for all the marbles. Last year with Stanford and Oklahoma State comes to mind. Auburn definitely had an argument in 2004 after going 13-0 and not getting their fair shot. So yes, expanding the teams that get a title shot from 2 to 4 makes perfect sense.
What about eight?
A recent report from a few sportswriters indicate some athletic directors foresee the playoff expanding to eight teams before the four-team deal is even halfway through it's contract. Why? There's going to be way too much money pouring in to keep this playoff at four teams.
It's a damn shame. Do we really need to see an eight-team playoff with four SEC teams? This dilutes conference championship games even more. Even worse, it will set up more rematches.
Consider this hypothetical but entirely realistic nightmare scenario:
#1 Alabama squeaks by #2 Florida early in the regular season. Both teams run the table the rest of the way.
#1 Alabama squeaks by #2 Florida in the SEC Championship game.
Both Alabama (13-0) and Florida (11-2) are seeded in the eight-team playoff
Those teams win their playoff games and make the Championship
In the title game, 8th seeded Florida beats #1 Alabama.
Not only do you have the same teams playing three games in one season, you have Florida crowned champions over Alabama even though they were 1-2 against them in those three games. Remember my "Perfect World" post from a few weeks ago? Leave the playoff at four teams, and require the invitees to be conference champions. Problem solved.
Perhaps the biggest drawback to expanding the playoffs to eight is that more playoff teams equals a more diluted regular season. Right now (and even under a four team playoff), if a team loses a single game, their national title aspirations take a serious hit. A second loss, even for a strong SEC team means your national title dreams are over.
An expanded playoff gives teams too many second chances. An eight team playoff will include one or two undefeated teams, four to five one loss teams, and one to three two loss teams. Heck, even a three loss SEC team wouldn't surprise me.
The regular season is so exciting because teams must walk that tightrope all season long. Expanding to eight teams expands the safety net and allows teams to lose up to two games while still getting consideration for the postseason.
Unfortunately, the almighty dollar always prevails and it looks like the fans will lose out on this one.
Pass Interference
OK, that last blurb was longer than I expected and I wanted to talk a little about pass interference. I'll try to keep this short.
I swear that this year, more than any other in recent memory, I have seen wide receivers throw their arms up trying to draw a flag whenever there is any contact with a defender. As a trained football official, this annoys the hell out of me.
In my view, if the defender has his arm on the offensive players back and is not impeding his chance to catch the ball, it is not PI. If the defender is making a play on the ball and is looking toward the ball after the QB releases it, it is not PI. Rules state that both players have an equal right to that ball; receivers seem to have never learned this or selectively forget.
True pass interference involves the defender hooking an arm, face guarding, or obstructing the offensive player without turning to make a play on the ball.
Coming Soon
Sometime soon I'm planning to write an entry ranking my favorite announcers along with a few of my not-so-favorite announcers in college football. Good announcing can add to the excitement of the game or it can make you long for nails on a chalkboard. It should be a fun topic to think about.
Whew. Glad to have all that out of my system. Have a good Friday!
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Top 5 Games - Week 11
First, apologies for taking a couple of days off. Between a dentist appointment, the election and school I've been a little sidetracked lately. Anyhow... back to football.
Ohio State picked about the worst time, college football schedule-wise, to have a bye. This week's slate of games is pretty weak and the Buckeyes would certainly liven it up. But, after being spoiled by the last few weeks, we'll be OK. As I've said... college football is like pizza and sex. Even when it's bad, it's still pretty good.
#15 Texas A&M (7-2) at #1 Alabama (9-0)
This is probably the premier game of the week and one of two things can happen: A&M pulls the upset or A&M gets waxed.
Looking at their schedules so far, the scores against similar opponents has been remarkably close (the only notable exceptions being A&M's close loss to LSU and a tighter game against Ole Miss). The Aggies have a better offense but Alabama has the nation's #1 defense in terms of points given up.
Those are the hard numbers but what about the intangibles? The Tide are coming off a huge, emotional, last-second win at LSU. Do they have enough left in the tank to keep Johnny Manziel in check? Bama was exposed a little bit last week by a QB that had barely been average (LSU QB Mettenberger passed for 298). So Alabama showed they can be beat, but it's going to take a flawless effort from Manziel and he's just a freshman.
Finally, this game is at Alabama but it's a 3:30 game. I just can't picture Bryant-Denny stadium being more jacked up for a 3:30 game than if this were a night game.
All that considered, I'm probably going to regret this but I'm going on a limb and taking Texas A&M in my biggest Upset Special of the season. A&M in a nail biter.
2 Kansas State (9-0) at TCU (6-3)
The big question surrounding this game is whether or not K-State QB Collin Klein will be able to play. Wildcat coach Bill Snyder says he expects Klein to play, but will likely be a game day decision. Personally, with so much riding on these last three games I don't see how Klein doesn't find his way on to the field.
After playing three straight ranked opponents, KSU finally plays an unranked opponent. TCU, however is in the middle of it's own grind; the Frogs are in game 2 of 4 against currently-ranked BCS teams. TCU is quietly a pretty decent team and they are certainly capable of the upset; this is especially true because the game is at TCU where the Frogs are tough to beat. In fact, if Klein doesn't play the majority of the first half I would make this my second Upset Special of the week.
However, I think Klein will be OK and Kansas State has come too far to let this thing slide. Bill Snyder will have K-State prepared for another tough test, and the magical ride will continue for the Cats. Kansas State in a close one.
Penn State (6-3) at #15 Nebraska (7-2)
This game features two teams that are 4-1 in the Big Ten. Yes, yes, Penn State is ineligible. And the Big Ten is abysmal this year. But Penn State has been playing decently in the Big Ten and the Cornhuskers need a win to keep their lead in the Legends division over TSUN. For that reason alone, I'm interested.
I'll keep this one short and sweet. Penn State's record is inflated because of how bad the Big Ten is. Nebraska's schedule within the Big Ten has been a little bit tougher. Both teams have beaten Northwestern and both lost to Ohio State. Nebraska has more impressive wins though: vs. Wisconsin and TSUN and at Michigan State. Meanwhile, PSU's most impressive win is... um... Purdue?
Nebraska in an easy one.
#24 Northwestern (7-2) at The Team Who Shall Not Be Named (6-3)
OK, my Big Ten bias is coming through. Bad or not it's the home league so I'm following the race pretty closely.
Two good offenses + two inconsistent defenses = a ton of points. These two should combine for somewhere near 100 points.
I'm obviously rooting for Northwestern but these just seem like the kinds of games that never go my way. TSUN in a close, high scoring shootout.
Wisconsin (6-3) at Indiana (4-5)
Remember when I said the Hoosiers can win the Big Ten by winning out? This game is against the team they're trying to beat out for the Leaders title.
Indiana has a good offense with an inconsistent (perhaps 'bad' is a more appropriate adjective). Wisconsin has been very unimpressive and disappointing this year; with OSU and PSU ineligible many thought the Badgers were a shoo-in for the title game.
As much as I'm rooting for Indiana, I just don't see it. I suppose if the Hoosiers come up with another effort like they did against Ohio State they might have a shot. But there are some things I simply can't accept as true: the Sun revolving around the Earth. Trickle down economics. Indiana competing for a Big Ten title.
Wisconsin in an easy one.
There they are: Texas A&M, Kansas State, Nebraska, TSUN, Wisconsin.
First, apologies for taking a couple of days off. Between a dentist appointment, the election and school I've been a little sidetracked lately. Anyhow... back to football.
Ohio State picked about the worst time, college football schedule-wise, to have a bye. This week's slate of games is pretty weak and the Buckeyes would certainly liven it up. But, after being spoiled by the last few weeks, we'll be OK. As I've said... college football is like pizza and sex. Even when it's bad, it's still pretty good.
#15 Texas A&M (7-2) at #1 Alabama (9-0)
This is probably the premier game of the week and one of two things can happen: A&M pulls the upset or A&M gets waxed.
Looking at their schedules so far, the scores against similar opponents has been remarkably close (the only notable exceptions being A&M's close loss to LSU and a tighter game against Ole Miss). The Aggies have a better offense but Alabama has the nation's #1 defense in terms of points given up.
Those are the hard numbers but what about the intangibles? The Tide are coming off a huge, emotional, last-second win at LSU. Do they have enough left in the tank to keep Johnny Manziel in check? Bama was exposed a little bit last week by a QB that had barely been average (LSU QB Mettenberger passed for 298). So Alabama showed they can be beat, but it's going to take a flawless effort from Manziel and he's just a freshman.
Finally, this game is at Alabama but it's a 3:30 game. I just can't picture Bryant-Denny stadium being more jacked up for a 3:30 game than if this were a night game.
All that considered, I'm probably going to regret this but I'm going on a limb and taking Texas A&M in my biggest Upset Special of the season. A&M in a nail biter.
2 Kansas State (9-0) at TCU (6-3)
The big question surrounding this game is whether or not K-State QB Collin Klein will be able to play. Wildcat coach Bill Snyder says he expects Klein to play, but will likely be a game day decision. Personally, with so much riding on these last three games I don't see how Klein doesn't find his way on to the field.
After playing three straight ranked opponents, KSU finally plays an unranked opponent. TCU, however is in the middle of it's own grind; the Frogs are in game 2 of 4 against currently-ranked BCS teams. TCU is quietly a pretty decent team and they are certainly capable of the upset; this is especially true because the game is at TCU where the Frogs are tough to beat. In fact, if Klein doesn't play the majority of the first half I would make this my second Upset Special of the week.
However, I think Klein will be OK and Kansas State has come too far to let this thing slide. Bill Snyder will have K-State prepared for another tough test, and the magical ride will continue for the Cats. Kansas State in a close one.
Penn State (6-3) at #15 Nebraska (7-2)
This game features two teams that are 4-1 in the Big Ten. Yes, yes, Penn State is ineligible. And the Big Ten is abysmal this year. But Penn State has been playing decently in the Big Ten and the Cornhuskers need a win to keep their lead in the Legends division over TSUN. For that reason alone, I'm interested.
I'll keep this one short and sweet. Penn State's record is inflated because of how bad the Big Ten is. Nebraska's schedule within the Big Ten has been a little bit tougher. Both teams have beaten Northwestern and both lost to Ohio State. Nebraska has more impressive wins though: vs. Wisconsin and TSUN and at Michigan State. Meanwhile, PSU's most impressive win is... um... Purdue?
Nebraska in an easy one.
#24 Northwestern (7-2) at The Team Who Shall Not Be Named (6-3)
OK, my Big Ten bias is coming through. Bad or not it's the home league so I'm following the race pretty closely.
Two good offenses + two inconsistent defenses = a ton of points. These two should combine for somewhere near 100 points.
I'm obviously rooting for Northwestern but these just seem like the kinds of games that never go my way. TSUN in a close, high scoring shootout.
Wisconsin (6-3) at Indiana (4-5)
Remember when I said the Hoosiers can win the Big Ten by winning out? This game is against the team they're trying to beat out for the Leaders title.
Indiana has a good offense with an inconsistent (perhaps 'bad' is a more appropriate adjective). Wisconsin has been very unimpressive and disappointing this year; with OSU and PSU ineligible many thought the Badgers were a shoo-in for the title game.
As much as I'm rooting for Indiana, I just don't see it. I suppose if the Hoosiers come up with another effort like they did against Ohio State they might have a shot. But there are some things I simply can't accept as true: the Sun revolving around the Earth. Trickle down economics. Indiana competing for a Big Ten title.
Wisconsin in an easy one.
There they are: Texas A&M, Kansas State, Nebraska, TSUN, Wisconsin.
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Beating Illinois: So Easy the Entire Big Ten Can Do It!
OSU - Illinois Game Review
I love weeks like this: more green than anything else.
RED
- Rod effing Smith. This guy has so much potential and I love the way he runs the ball. He also had nice 55 yard TD catch where he was wide open. But this fumbling issue... I don't even know what to say anymore. I don't know if it's because he's a sophomore, because Braxton spits on the ball before handing it off, or what. We'll just have to learn to hold our breath every time he's in the game; it's either going to be a nice play or a fumble. Kudos to Urban Meyer for letting true freshman Brionte Dunn carry the ball to burn the clock at the end of the game instead of Fumblin' Man (even though Dunn came perilously close to fumbling once too).
- Slow start. Again, the Bucks couldn't come out roaring and put this game away in by the end of the first quarter. Hopefully they can get this resolved with the bye week.
- Christian Bryant. What a bonehead. He takes unnecessary penalties, has trouble tackling, and is only decent in pass coverage. All these things, especially the dumb penalties, has publicly landed him in Coach Meyer's doghouse. Good luck with that.
- Jake Stoneburner. Man... we start involving him more in the offense and he just flat-out drops two passes. Two good passes. Ouch.
YELLOW
- Special teams coverage on kickoffs. This week (finally) OSU did not allow a super-long return or a return for a TD. But the Illini still averaged 26.3 yards per return, which doesn't cut it. Special teams really needs to work on taking better angles and wrapping people up.
- The turnovers. The Bucks lost the turnover battle, 2-1, but against a team as terrible as Illinois, it didn't really hurt them too much. There was the Rod Smith fumble, then the Kenny Guiton "what the hell was he thinking" late option pitch which Illinois returned for a TD. The defense dropped at least one sure interception and were close on several more. Against Wisconsin and TSUN, we'll need the defensive backs to make those plays.
- The passing game. It looked decent but I was expecting more than decent; Miller passed for 226 and Guiton added 11; but that in and of itself is a little disappointing. This was supposed to be the game where the passing game should have exploded but it didn't even manage 250 yards. Granted, a lot of that can be chalked up to a phenomenal rushing attack but it would have been nice to see more consistency through the air.
GREEN
- The aforementioned rushing attack. 137 from Hyde, 73 from Miller, 73 from Dunn 32 from Rod Smith. The O-line pushed the Illini defensive front around like a Pop Warner team. Let this stat sink in: OSU out-rushed Illinois 330-74.
- The pass defense. Man, were they good after the first quarter. Perhaps the best they've been all year. Nathan Scheelhaus is actually a decent QB and I remember at one point in the first quarter saying "man, he's already got 70-some yards". After his hot start, the defense limited him to 19/34 passing for just 96 yards. That's an average of 2.8/yards per pass. Crazy good.
- Why did Scheelhaus suck so bad after the first quarter? The OSU defensive front seven. In this game they established more pressure on a consistent basis than they have all year. The most basic tenant of football is that more defensive pressure = better chance of winning. It's that simple, and the Bucks executed nicely.
- Carlos Hyde. After being held in check last week, Hyde exploded for 137 on 18 carries for a whopping 7.6 yard per carry average.
- Spreading the wealth. In this game, eight different Buckeye receivers combined to catch 13 passes. Compare this to last year when Jake Stoneburner was the only Buckeye to make a catch against Illinois. And he only caught one pass. What a difference Urban Meyer makes. With the same players we went from one catch to 13. Still work to be done, no doubt. But we are certainly seeing progress.
- I'm going to give a shoutout to the whole team. This is the first OSU team to score 50+ points at least four times in the same season. They are ranked 9th in the nation in rushing and 12th in scoring. Despite (technically) having nothing to play for, they are 10-0 and need to win just one more game to be Leaders Division Champions.
Final Thoughts
I know it's easy to get carried away with excitement after pounding such a bad team. But I think we are seeing real progress. Since the Indiana debacle, the defense has looked... god help me... good. Whether this is due to Urban Intervention or Fickell feeling the heat we may not know, but the results are there. The starting defense gave up two field goals in the game (Illinois' other points came on the Guiton pitch and against the second-team defense). They looked great against Penn State. They held Purdue in check. Hopefully this upward trend continues on to Wisconsin and TSUN.
It's a bye this week so we get to enjoy this week's games from the sidelines. The bye comes right before the two toughest games of the year. I'm sure the players and staff are grateful for that. Let's see if the Bucks can finish strong and get that undefeated season.
OSU - Illinois Game Review
I love weeks like this: more green than anything else.
RED
- Rod effing Smith. This guy has so much potential and I love the way he runs the ball. He also had nice 55 yard TD catch where he was wide open. But this fumbling issue... I don't even know what to say anymore. I don't know if it's because he's a sophomore, because Braxton spits on the ball before handing it off, or what. We'll just have to learn to hold our breath every time he's in the game; it's either going to be a nice play or a fumble. Kudos to Urban Meyer for letting true freshman Brionte Dunn carry the ball to burn the clock at the end of the game instead of Fumblin' Man (even though Dunn came perilously close to fumbling once too).
- Slow start. Again, the Bucks couldn't come out roaring and put this game away in by the end of the first quarter. Hopefully they can get this resolved with the bye week.
- Christian Bryant. What a bonehead. He takes unnecessary penalties, has trouble tackling, and is only decent in pass coverage. All these things, especially the dumb penalties, has publicly landed him in Coach Meyer's doghouse. Good luck with that.
- Jake Stoneburner. Man... we start involving him more in the offense and he just flat-out drops two passes. Two good passes. Ouch.
YELLOW
- Special teams coverage on kickoffs. This week (finally) OSU did not allow a super-long return or a return for a TD. But the Illini still averaged 26.3 yards per return, which doesn't cut it. Special teams really needs to work on taking better angles and wrapping people up.
- The turnovers. The Bucks lost the turnover battle, 2-1, but against a team as terrible as Illinois, it didn't really hurt them too much. There was the Rod Smith fumble, then the Kenny Guiton "what the hell was he thinking" late option pitch which Illinois returned for a TD. The defense dropped at least one sure interception and were close on several more. Against Wisconsin and TSUN, we'll need the defensive backs to make those plays.
- The passing game. It looked decent but I was expecting more than decent; Miller passed for 226 and Guiton added 11; but that in and of itself is a little disappointing. This was supposed to be the game where the passing game should have exploded but it didn't even manage 250 yards. Granted, a lot of that can be chalked up to a phenomenal rushing attack but it would have been nice to see more consistency through the air.
GREEN
- The aforementioned rushing attack. 137 from Hyde, 73 from Miller, 73 from Dunn 32 from Rod Smith. The O-line pushed the Illini defensive front around like a Pop Warner team. Let this stat sink in: OSU out-rushed Illinois 330-74.
- The pass defense. Man, were they good after the first quarter. Perhaps the best they've been all year. Nathan Scheelhaus is actually a decent QB and I remember at one point in the first quarter saying "man, he's already got 70-some yards". After his hot start, the defense limited him to 19/34 passing for just 96 yards. That's an average of 2.8/yards per pass. Crazy good.
- Why did Scheelhaus suck so bad after the first quarter? The OSU defensive front seven. In this game they established more pressure on a consistent basis than they have all year. The most basic tenant of football is that more defensive pressure = better chance of winning. It's that simple, and the Bucks executed nicely.
- Carlos Hyde. After being held in check last week, Hyde exploded for 137 on 18 carries for a whopping 7.6 yard per carry average.
- Spreading the wealth. In this game, eight different Buckeye receivers combined to catch 13 passes. Compare this to last year when Jake Stoneburner was the only Buckeye to make a catch against Illinois. And he only caught one pass. What a difference Urban Meyer makes. With the same players we went from one catch to 13. Still work to be done, no doubt. But we are certainly seeing progress.
- I'm going to give a shoutout to the whole team. This is the first OSU team to score 50+ points at least four times in the same season. They are ranked 9th in the nation in rushing and 12th in scoring. Despite (technically) having nothing to play for, they are 10-0 and need to win just one more game to be Leaders Division Champions.
Final Thoughts
I know it's easy to get carried away with excitement after pounding such a bad team. But I think we are seeing real progress. Since the Indiana debacle, the defense has looked... god help me... good. Whether this is due to Urban Intervention or Fickell feeling the heat we may not know, but the results are there. The starting defense gave up two field goals in the game (Illinois' other points came on the Guiton pitch and against the second-team defense). They looked great against Penn State. They held Purdue in check. Hopefully this upward trend continues on to Wisconsin and TSUN.
It's a bye this week so we get to enjoy this week's games from the sidelines. The bye comes right before the two toughest games of the year. I'm sure the players and staff are grateful for that. Let's see if the Bucks can finish strong and get that undefeated season.
Reviewing My Week 10 Picks
After a sub-.500 week with my picks I'm back on track, going 4-1 this week (and I was a two point conversion away from going 5-0).
My pick: Ohio State over Illinois in a blowout
What happened: Ohio State blew the doors off Illinois in what was perhaps the Buckeye's most complete game of the season. OSU showed why they are the best of the Big Ten while Illinois showed why they are the worst. I'll have a full game review up later.
Final Ohio State 52, Illinois 22
My pick: Alabama over LSU in a nail biter.
What happened: Alabama beat LSU in a nail biter. It was shocking to see more touchdowns (5) than field goals (1) in this game. The Tide got out to a seemingly insurmountable 14-3 lead at halftime only to have LSU dominate the third quarter. LSU QB Zach Mettenberger played better than anyone thought and led LSU to a 17-14 lead with under two minutes to go. Alabama's offense had been completely shut down the whole second half until the final drive, when Tide QB A.J. McCarron led Alabama down the field and grabbed the winning TD with :52 left. It was a classic game until, in the post-game interview McCarron started crying like a little girl. Grow up, son. This is the S-E-C! and it's a man's league.
Final: Alabama 21, LSU 17
My pick: Kansas State over Oklahoma State in an easy one.
What happened: Although K-State won by 14, I wouldn't call it an easy win. OK State hung around all night and showed why they have one of the top offenses in the country. The Cowboys played well by the Wildcats were too much, especially on defense where K-State CB Allan Chapman picked off three passes. This was also a potentially costly win as K-State QB Collin "Optimus" Klein sat out the second half with an apparent wrist injury. No word yet on how serious the injury is or how much time Klein might miss.
Final: Kansas State 44, Oklahoma State 30
My pick: Boise State over San Diego State in a close one.
What happened: Damn! I almost decided to make this one my upset special, and I should have. For only the 4th time since 2000, Boise lost on its home blue field. The Aztec defense suffocated the Broncos and came up with enough plays on offense to pull out an exciting win. Boise scored a late TD to pull within two, then missed on the two-point conversion. SDSU got the ensuing kickoff and managed to run out 6 minutes of clock, including a huge 4th & 2 that would have given Boise the ball with two minutes left.
Final: San Diego State 21, Boise State 19
My pick: Oregon over USC in an easy one
What happened: A weird, super high-scoring game. Oregon got out to an early, huge 27-10 lead in the first half, then the Trojans came back. Although USC was never able to grab the lead, both teams just kept scoring, and scoring and scoring. This game raises serious questions about Oregon's defense.
Final: Oregon 62, USC 51
Record this week: 4-1
Overall: 13-7
After a sub-.500 week with my picks I'm back on track, going 4-1 this week (and I was a two point conversion away from going 5-0).
My pick: Ohio State over Illinois in a blowout
What happened: Ohio State blew the doors off Illinois in what was perhaps the Buckeye's most complete game of the season. OSU showed why they are the best of the Big Ten while Illinois showed why they are the worst. I'll have a full game review up later.
Final Ohio State 52, Illinois 22
My pick: Alabama over LSU in a nail biter.
What happened: Alabama beat LSU in a nail biter. It was shocking to see more touchdowns (5) than field goals (1) in this game. The Tide got out to a seemingly insurmountable 14-3 lead at halftime only to have LSU dominate the third quarter. LSU QB Zach Mettenberger played better than anyone thought and led LSU to a 17-14 lead with under two minutes to go. Alabama's offense had been completely shut down the whole second half until the final drive, when Tide QB A.J. McCarron led Alabama down the field and grabbed the winning TD with :52 left. It was a classic game until, in the post-game interview McCarron started crying like a little girl. Grow up, son. This is the S-E-C! and it's a man's league.
Final: Alabama 21, LSU 17
My pick: Kansas State over Oklahoma State in an easy one.
What happened: Although K-State won by 14, I wouldn't call it an easy win. OK State hung around all night and showed why they have one of the top offenses in the country. The Cowboys played well by the Wildcats were too much, especially on defense where K-State CB Allan Chapman picked off three passes. This was also a potentially costly win as K-State QB Collin "Optimus" Klein sat out the second half with an apparent wrist injury. No word yet on how serious the injury is or how much time Klein might miss.
Final: Kansas State 44, Oklahoma State 30
My pick: Boise State over San Diego State in a close one.
What happened: Damn! I almost decided to make this one my upset special, and I should have. For only the 4th time since 2000, Boise lost on its home blue field. The Aztec defense suffocated the Broncos and came up with enough plays on offense to pull out an exciting win. Boise scored a late TD to pull within two, then missed on the two-point conversion. SDSU got the ensuing kickoff and managed to run out 6 minutes of clock, including a huge 4th & 2 that would have given Boise the ball with two minutes left.
Final: San Diego State 21, Boise State 19
My pick: Oregon over USC in an easy one
What happened: A weird, super high-scoring game. Oregon got out to an early, huge 27-10 lead in the first half, then the Trojans came back. Although USC was never able to grab the lead, both teams just kept scoring, and scoring and scoring. This game raises serious questions about Oregon's defense.
Final: Oregon 62, USC 51
Record this week: 4-1
Overall: 13-7
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Week 10 Picks
There aren't as many stellar games this week as there were last week, but that doesn't mean this week's games are any less important. Upsets tend to happen on weeks like this. Teams come out a little flat after posting a big win the previous week and it ends up costing that team big time.
Plus, it's November now. September is the warm-up and October is where teams start to separate themselves. But November is when crunch time kicks in. This is the month where the truly elite contenders start to stand out while the lesser teams are picked off one by one.
In short, it's the best month of the year.
Illinois (2-6) at #6 (AP) Ohio State (9-0)
On paper, this is the mismatch of the season. Illinois ranks 118th (out of 124) in scoring offense and 89th in scoring defense. The Illini's two wins have come against Western Michigan and I-AA Charleston Southern. Of their six losses, the closest one was a 14 point loss to none other than Indiana.
Illinois does run the spread (or at least they try to) which has given Ohio State some problems this year. This game will be a nice opportunity to slow down the spread and build some confidence for the Buckeye defense. Braxton Miller should be able to run at will, and with Illinois sporting a spotty pass defense, he should be able to work on the passing game.
I'd write more about how upsets can happen and Illinois has historically been able to upset the Bucks but frankly, I don't see that happening. Illinois is just that bad. They're 0-4 in a super-weak Big Ten. Enough said. Hopefully the players aren't taking this game as lightly as I am though! Ohio State in a blowout.
#1 Alabama (8-0) at #5 LSU (7-1)
Here it is... your "Game of the Century of the Season". The winner controls their destiny in the SEC West and, barring an upset, is all but assured a spot in the National Championship. Last year LSU beat Alabama in regulation only to lose to them in the most boring National Championship game ever.
Both teams sport fantastic defenses. The difference is going to be the offense. Looking at the offenses, though, shows both teams rely heavily on the run (this is the SEC, after all). Both teams rank in the top 25 of rushing and in the bottom 50 of passing. Alabama does have the better QB in A.J. McCarron. LSU's Zack Mettenberger has looked unimpressive at times, so the edge goes to the Tide in QB play.
However, this game is at night in Death Valley, which is perhaps the most difficult place to play in college football. The crowd will be crazy and, despite crushing undefeated Mississippi State last week, this will be Alabama's first real test. This is the biggest, most difficult game on either team's schedule - and that includes the SEC Championship and National Title game.
This one's going to be a soccer match. Field goals, field goals and more field goals will determine this one. I think QB play is the difference here and Alabama will be able to handle the crowd. Alabama in a nail-biter.
#24 Oklahoma State (5-2) at #2 Kansas State (8-0)
Here we go again. Another week, another Top 25 opponent for the Wildcats. We have seen how the Wildcats have an explosive offense featuring Heisman frontrunner Colin Klein to go along with a defense that is able to shut down even the most powerful offenses. Now the Cowboys come calling and they are a solid team. The OK State offense is even more explosive than West Virginia's; it ranks 6th in passing, 13th in rushing and 6th in points scored. The defense is middle-of-the-pack but that offense is just crazy.
K-State features the 90th ranked pass attack (which is a little misleading; since their games are usually over by halftime, they don't need to rely on the pass), the 17th best rushing attack, and the 5th best scoring offense. The K-State defense is the difference here; it ranks 13th in the country.
I'm tempted to take Oklahoma State with the upset. Kansas State is running a gauntlet; how much do they have left? I just can't do it though. Every time I think one of their games will be close, the Cats dominate. This is a night game and I'm taking Kansas State in an easy one.
San Diego State (6-3) at #19 Boise State (7-1)
Time to give the a non-BCS conference some love. I've been watching the San Diego State Aztecs the last few weeks (they are on very late) and they have been fun to watch. Two weeks ago they pulled out an exciting OT win at Nevada by going for two and this week they face Boise on the blue turf. Boise has been quite this year. A week one loss at Michigan State eliminated them from the BCS from the get-go (or so we thought at the time) but since then they've won seven straight.
Boise rarely loses on the blue turf and, although I'm pulling for the upset, I've gotta go with my gut on this one. Boise State in a close one.
#4 Oregon (8-0) at #17 USC (6-2)
This game looks OK on paper, but Oregon's offense is going to be too much for SC to handle. The Trojans entered the year ranked #1 in the polls but two losses: a close upset to Stanford and an embarrassing loss to Rich Rodriguez-coached Arizona has derailed the Trojan Express.
Meanwhile, the Ducks are trying to score as many points as they can before the NCAA bitch-slaps them back to mediocrity with sanctions for breaking recruiting rules.
Everyone thinks this could be a close one, with some even saying SC can pull off the upset. Oregon and SC are ranked 24th and 25th defensively, so that's a wash. The difference is Oregon's offense, which is ranked #1 (USC is 29th in offense). In other words, there is no way SC's offense will match the Ducks. Oregon in an easy one.
There you have it: Ohio State, Alabama, Kansas State, Boise State and Oregon.
What? No upset special this week?! Yes, realize the irony of opening this post by stating this is a good week for upsets, but I just can't see any of these teams losing. If any one of my five picks is wrong, it'll be Oklahoma State who upsets Kansas State.
There aren't as many stellar games this week as there were last week, but that doesn't mean this week's games are any less important. Upsets tend to happen on weeks like this. Teams come out a little flat after posting a big win the previous week and it ends up costing that team big time.
Plus, it's November now. September is the warm-up and October is where teams start to separate themselves. But November is when crunch time kicks in. This is the month where the truly elite contenders start to stand out while the lesser teams are picked off one by one.
In short, it's the best month of the year.
Illinois (2-6) at #6 (AP) Ohio State (9-0)
On paper, this is the mismatch of the season. Illinois ranks 118th (out of 124) in scoring offense and 89th in scoring defense. The Illini's two wins have come against Western Michigan and I-AA Charleston Southern. Of their six losses, the closest one was a 14 point loss to none other than Indiana.
Illinois does run the spread (or at least they try to) which has given Ohio State some problems this year. This game will be a nice opportunity to slow down the spread and build some confidence for the Buckeye defense. Braxton Miller should be able to run at will, and with Illinois sporting a spotty pass defense, he should be able to work on the passing game.
I'd write more about how upsets can happen and Illinois has historically been able to upset the Bucks but frankly, I don't see that happening. Illinois is just that bad. They're 0-4 in a super-weak Big Ten. Enough said. Hopefully the players aren't taking this game as lightly as I am though! Ohio State in a blowout.
#1 Alabama (8-0) at #5 LSU (7-1)
Here it is... your "Game of the Century of the Season". The winner controls their destiny in the SEC West and, barring an upset, is all but assured a spot in the National Championship. Last year LSU beat Alabama in regulation only to lose to them in the most boring National Championship game ever.
Both teams sport fantastic defenses. The difference is going to be the offense. Looking at the offenses, though, shows both teams rely heavily on the run (this is the SEC, after all). Both teams rank in the top 25 of rushing and in the bottom 50 of passing. Alabama does have the better QB in A.J. McCarron. LSU's Zack Mettenberger has looked unimpressive at times, so the edge goes to the Tide in QB play.
However, this game is at night in Death Valley, which is perhaps the most difficult place to play in college football. The crowd will be crazy and, despite crushing undefeated Mississippi State last week, this will be Alabama's first real test. This is the biggest, most difficult game on either team's schedule - and that includes the SEC Championship and National Title game.
This one's going to be a soccer match. Field goals, field goals and more field goals will determine this one. I think QB play is the difference here and Alabama will be able to handle the crowd. Alabama in a nail-biter.
#24 Oklahoma State (5-2) at #2 Kansas State (8-0)
Here we go again. Another week, another Top 25 opponent for the Wildcats. We have seen how the Wildcats have an explosive offense featuring Heisman frontrunner Colin Klein to go along with a defense that is able to shut down even the most powerful offenses. Now the Cowboys come calling and they are a solid team. The OK State offense is even more explosive than West Virginia's; it ranks 6th in passing, 13th in rushing and 6th in points scored. The defense is middle-of-the-pack but that offense is just crazy.
K-State features the 90th ranked pass attack (which is a little misleading; since their games are usually over by halftime, they don't need to rely on the pass), the 17th best rushing attack, and the 5th best scoring offense. The K-State defense is the difference here; it ranks 13th in the country.
I'm tempted to take Oklahoma State with the upset. Kansas State is running a gauntlet; how much do they have left? I just can't do it though. Every time I think one of their games will be close, the Cats dominate. This is a night game and I'm taking Kansas State in an easy one.
San Diego State (6-3) at #19 Boise State (7-1)
Time to give the a non-BCS conference some love. I've been watching the San Diego State Aztecs the last few weeks (they are on very late) and they have been fun to watch. Two weeks ago they pulled out an exciting OT win at Nevada by going for two and this week they face Boise on the blue turf. Boise has been quite this year. A week one loss at Michigan State eliminated them from the BCS from the get-go (or so we thought at the time) but since then they've won seven straight.
Boise rarely loses on the blue turf and, although I'm pulling for the upset, I've gotta go with my gut on this one. Boise State in a close one.
#4 Oregon (8-0) at #17 USC (6-2)
This game looks OK on paper, but Oregon's offense is going to be too much for SC to handle. The Trojans entered the year ranked #1 in the polls but two losses: a close upset to Stanford and an embarrassing loss to Rich Rodriguez-coached Arizona has derailed the Trojan Express.
Meanwhile, the Ducks are trying to score as many points as they can before the NCAA bitch-slaps them back to mediocrity with sanctions for breaking recruiting rules.
Everyone thinks this could be a close one, with some even saying SC can pull off the upset. Oregon and SC are ranked 24th and 25th defensively, so that's a wash. The difference is Oregon's offense, which is ranked #1 (USC is 29th in offense). In other words, there is no way SC's offense will match the Ducks. Oregon in an easy one.
There you have it: Ohio State, Alabama, Kansas State, Boise State and Oregon.
What? No upset special this week?! Yes, realize the irony of opening this post by stating this is a good week for upsets, but I just can't see any of these teams losing. If any one of my five picks is wrong, it'll be Oklahoma State who upsets Kansas State.
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